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Projections Update: Post Super Tuesday numbers, what if Rubio drops out?

We’ve updated our spreadsheet that the latest numbers on the delegate projections, based on polling aggregates from fivethirtyeight.com and Real Clear Politics. These are run on a state-by-state basis, with each state’s delegate allocation rules factored into the math. The poll numbers are up-to-date through March 6, and we’ve added options for Rubio dropping out, as well as forcing new winners in the big winner-take-all states to see what that does to the numbers.

How might our numbers still be off? Well, first off, if the polls are. Some big states, like Florida, haven’t had new poll numbers for nearly two weeks. National polls don’t yet seem to reflect Super Tuesday (and certainly Super Saturday) voting.

They’re also probably off a few delegates per state, as we use state-wide polling numbers for each congressional district, which favors the state winner by allocating a handful more delegates to them than real life.

A third way it’s probably off is that it apportions undecided voters proportionally among those that make the threshold. This has no effect on the Democratic side, but does favor Trump on the GOP side for two reasons: it probably undercuts finishers who are polling near the delegate threshold, and the latest results show that late deciders are voting against Trump by large margins.

With those caveats, it’s useful for running scenarios to see what might happen March 15 and beyond.

Run the projections yourself here:

Delegate Math

Should Rubio Drop Out?

The press narrative is basically right: Ted Cruz had a great night Saturday, somewhat at Donald Trump’s expense but much more at Marco Rubio’s. However, neither Maine nor Kentucky had good polling there, so all you can say is that they didn’t reflect the national polling average – which isn’t saying much at this point. Here’s how they did:

	Trump		Cruz		Rubio		Kasich
	Projected	Result	Projected	Result	Projected	Result	Projected	Result
Kansas	19	9	8	24	7	6	5	1
Kentucky	22	17	10	15	9	7	4	7
Louisiana*	22	18	12	17	0	0	0	0
Maine	12	9	5	12	5	0	0	2

Note that Louisiana didn’t post its rounding rules for congressional districts, so you have to wait on the state GOP to assign the remaining 11 delegates. The same rounding problems are why our projection doesn’t add up to the actual.

All in all, though, Trump comes out about 15 delegates below projection, Rubio 8 below, and Cruz 33 above. That’s a pretty big deal for Cruz, if for no other reason than it gives him some momentum ahead of March 15 and now makes him look like the main anti-Trump.

Trump still on pace to win, but Cruz strength may shift poll numbers. — Delegate projections March 6

It’s still a long road, and there’s probably no way that Rubio drops out before Florida (though there, remarkably, hasn’t been a poll there since February 24), but his strong second to Trump in delegate count (coupled with Rubio’s bad press night) could change the narrative. If Rubio wins Florida and Kasich wins Ohio, it’s hard to see either dropping out to clear the path for Cruz, but if they did, here’s what the math might look like:

Admittedly, this is an anti-Trump fantasy and not really based on current polls.

Brokered Convention Math: Not Trump Needs Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio

Prior to Super Tuesday, we thought there were no scenarios in which Donald Trump didn’t go on to get the 1,237 delegates needed to win on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention. Trump had a slightly weaker than expected delegate haul than we expected, and there are a few glimmers of hope for the #NeverTrump crowd.

It turns out that Mitt Romney is probably right: the most likely way for Trump to not win is for Marco Rubio and John Kasich voters to vote strategically. Our latest projections, which include Trump taking the big winner-take-all states of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Illinois shows Trump taking the majority in after April 26. This is mostly on the strength of a huge March 15 haul for the candidate, where we see him picking up over 500 delegates to reach 881 of the 1,237 needed.

If Trump wins the big winner-take-all states, he should wrap it up before May 1.

There is no world in which the non-Trumps get block his first-ballot nomination without a Rubio victory to claim Florida’s 99 delegates. Trump leads leads Kasich in Ohio 30.2% to 26.6%. There’s no polling for Puerto Rico’s 23 winner-take-all delegates, but we’ll assume for the sake of argument that Trump doesn’t win that one. Move those to the other side, and Trump’s victory moves all the way to the final day, but he still wins.

So what’s the most-likely non-Trump path? Polling beyond March is spotty, but if Trump loses Florida, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Ohio, Puerto Rico, and California, you’ve got a contested convention. He currently holds double-digit leads in PA (April 26) and NJ (June 7), and Cruz may be within a few points in California, but there haven’t been any good polls there forever (probably because most normal nomination contests would be wrapped up by the final day.

Trump just misses assuming he loses Florida, Ohio, California, Puerto Rico, and New Jersey...all winner-take-all contests. — Trump just misses assuming he loses Florida, Ohio, California, Puerto Rico, and New Jersey…all winner-take-all contests.

A simpler take is this: If Trump wins Florida and Ohio, there is virtually no option to stop him. If he loses those, there’s a possibility to block him. If he also loses Illinois on March 15, that would suggest the numbers we’re using to project are too high, and Trump may fall several hundred delegates short.

Of course, all of this assumes that Trump loses a contested convention; it’s hard to imagine what policy concessions the other candidates can offer true Trump delegates. Trump has between 250 million and 10 billion (depending on your source) convincing reasons to persuade other delegates to break camp if he needs to.

Super Tuesday quick take: Great for Cruz, Par for Trump, and Holding for Rubio

The delegate math for the Republicans is difficult, with each state having its own rules down to the Congressional district level. More than 30 hours after polls closed, the majority of the states are still figuring out how to apportion the delegates. We have updated our projections in a simple way: the leading candidate in the state gets the balance of the delegates still on the table. This rough math generally favors Trump, but also gives Cruz a boost in Texas.

Projected values before Super Tuesday — Delegates expected before Super Tuesday

Based on those numbers, Trump fell short of our delegate projection by 71 (we saw him winning 358, but now see that coming out to 277). Cruz overshot: we see him winning 237 against the 165 we projected. While the news cycle for Rubio is certainly negative, he slightly overshot based on stronger-than-projected showings in Minnesota and Virginia.

Actual delegates won on Super Tuesday — Actual Delegates Won on Super Tuesday

The biggest deltas in our projection are Oklahoma, Minnesota, and Alaska. The latter two are simply because there weren’t any good polls, so the model defaulted to the national polling numbers, which benefited Trump. Hard to call those an upset. Oklahoma, though, is a big win for Cruz. The bigger prize for him, though, is probably the Carson dropout, which should boost him 5-10 points in states with strong evangelical populations (too bad most of those have already voted).

Does this change the outcome? Right now, not according to our model. We’ll have another post before the Saturday votes, but playing with the numbers still shows a high likelihood that Trump wins outright in the May/June timeframe. Florida and Ohio will be absolutely critical to the “block Trump” faction of the party…and, of course, whatever it is that Romney has to say may still have an impact.

Latest Democratic and Republican Delegate Math projections

The spreadsheet below runs the the latest numbers on the delegate projections, based on polling aggregates from fivethirtyeight.com and Real Clear Politics. These are run on a state-by-state basis, with each state’s delegate allocation rules factored into the math.

Run the projections yourself here:

Delegate Math

GOP Insiders Hurting Rubio, Selves

At a dinner following the South Carolina primaries, a GOP insider close to Jeb Bush said party leaders were looking for ways to get Cruz and Rubio to better cooperate in order to stall Trump’s march to the nomination. The insider rolled off a number of options, including possibly stacking up a POTUS-VPOTUS ticket in exchange for a drop out. A plan B, they said, was to get sufficient cooperation to force a brokered convention, at which point they could move the delegates in the right direction.

With Bush and Graham saying the party is “batshit crazy,” you’d think the establishment would be looking to save the party. You’d be wrong. While Jeb will eventually endorse Rubio, GOP insiders say he still seethes at both Rubio’s decision to run and his personal attacks against Bush; Bush won’t offer that endorsement until the last minute.

The situation invites the question as to whether they consider Rubio a true “establishment” candidate. They shouldn’t, and it appears they don’t. Insiders are not actively pushing Kasich to drop out, reportedly in hopes that he can become the nominee in a brokered convention.

These insiders have better data than we do, but unless their data is wildly different than ours, they’re suffering from a bout of wishful thinking. No one will drop out before Super Tuesday, and Rubio and Kasich will probably stay in through March 15, when Florida and Ohio vote in winner-take-all primaries. The problem is, Trump is leading polls in those states, and will have a yuuuge delegate lead before March 15.

GOP delegate projection thru March 10 as of Feb 28

The chart above is based on state-level polls with state-level delegate allocation rules. After Super Tuesday, Trump should have around 440 delegates, Cruz 192, and Rubio 112. Those projections would have Trump on pace to wrap up the nomination before May 1, with Cruz and Rubio getting just over 300 delegates a piece.

538 delegate projections run February 28

We’ve run dozens of projections based on current polling data^[1]Of course, none of them involve Cruz or Rubio dropping out. We’ll need to check the 2nd preference votes for both of those candidates. We haven’t seen good data since before Iowa. At that time, nearly 30% of Rubio’s supporters went to Cruz and 10% to Trump. Cruz dropping out meant 30% went to Trump and around 20% each to Rubio and Carson.. The only scenario that produces a brokered convention involves Kasich dropping out before Super Tuesday and 85% of his supporters breaking for Rubio. Even then, Trump falls only 21 delegates short.

Run February 28 based on fivethirtyeight polls, assuming 85/10/5 Rubio/Cruz/Trump reallocation

So let’s assume no one drops out until after Ohio and Florida vote. What happens then? No surprise, Trump wins, needing only around 300 delegates more after March 15:

Kasich drops out after (losing) Ohio (to Trump). Trump wins the nomination.

So where does this put us? Barring massive shifts in polling numbers^[2]Or, Ohio and Florida’s winner-take-alls bouncing to another candidate, GOP insiders will be out of time to affect the outcome if they wait until after Florida to shape the race. They’re probably too late already; their unwillingness (or inability) to do so before Super Tuesday probably cemented the deal.

Footnotes [ + ]

1.	↑	Of course, none of them involve Cruz or Rubio dropping out. We’ll need to check the 2nd preference votes for both of those candidates. We haven’t seen good data since before Iowa. At that time, nearly 30% of Rubio’s supporters went to Cruz and 10% to Trump. Cruz dropping out meant 30% went to Trump and around 20% each to Rubio and Carson.
2.	↑	Or, Ohio and Florida’s winner-take-alls bouncing to another candidate