Two Polls Show Tight Ohio Race

We’ve already adjusted our model to account for a “Clinton ceiling,” and it’s looking like it may be the right projection.  New polls from Quinnipiac and Public Policy Polling show Sanders closing the gap in Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri.  Our model baked in a Missouri upset (we have him winning there by nearly 10 points on the assumptions late breakers go for him).  The potential softening in Ohio, where PPP has Clinton 46-41 is a significant shift from our model’s 55-45 split (as, under our rule, this would translate to a 9-point Sanders win).  PPP’s 48-45 split in Illinois is not too far from the 51.5-48.5 we’re projecting.

The GOP numbers are equally interesting in Ohio, showing a tied race there. If Kasich fails to win there, it’s hard to see a credible pathNew @ppppolls and @QuinnipiacPoll numbers show tight Dem race in OH, MO, IL with potential #Sanders upset.  #Kasich #Trump tight. for him and Rubio to stay in (and for the GOP to block Trump).

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