Hillary Clinton led by about 20 points going into Michigan’s primary. Even if she squeaks out a win, it’s impossible to deny that Bernie Sanders had a huge night there. With 74% of districts reporting, Sanders is up around 4%. From a delegate math perspective, though, Sanders said it himself “the delegates are going to get split up because of proportional representation.”
Based on the 20-point lead, we projected Sanders would leave with a 30-delegate lead. If the current numbers hold, Sanders will probably walk away with a 6-delegate lead. Regardless of what happens, Clinton will widen her gap overall, as she will probably get around 30 more delegates than Sanders in Mississippi. So, in the short term, Sanders win is big and unexpected, but doesn’t matter much.
In the long term, well, Clinton is still has a 200-delegate lead, and the March 15 states look pretty favorable to her. But if Sanders’ result in Michigan is an indicator that the national numbers are tighter than the current 13-point spread, Bernie could start chipping away, possibly preventing Clinton from getting a majority without having to use Superdelegates.