It’s early still, but the returns look to show that Trump will come out pretty close to our projections, though may lose a few delegates in Illinois and a few more in Missouri. It’s limited data, but the returns suggest Trump’s ceiling correlates closely to his poll numbers. With that and Rubio’s drop out, our model shows Trump missing a win by around 150 delegates – particularly if Rubio (and perhaps Bush) throw some weight behind Kasich. Big asterisks: Kasich still might not end up on Pennsylvania ballot.
On the Democratic side, Clinton appears to be exceeding our projections slightly, particularly in Ohio and Illinois (and, of course, Missouri, where we had her losing by nearly 10). This suggests her polls need to add somewhere near a one-third take of the undecideds (vice the worst-case 0% we projected). This still has Clinton short exactly 100 delegates from an outright, no-superdelegate win, but she finds herself in a much stronger position.
There will be a new narrative in each race after tonight’s primaries. If Trump takes all of the winner-take-all states, it’s more likely than not John Kasich and Marco Rubio will drop out. Establishment types will likely view that a Hobson’s choice, and rumors of a third-party candidate may grow. Below is the Donald Trump worst-case scenario, in which his poll numbers represent ceiling. This is not our projection, but rather a baseline to measure Trump’s performance against tonight (and we left the “force Cruz win in IL” flag on):
Trump still wins the day, even if his poll numbers are a ceiling, but Kasich wins Ohio and Cruz pulls out a surprise in Illinois.
The biggest surprises above are Ted Cruz’ strength in Illinois and Missouri. Western Illinois’s not all that different from Eastern Iowa (nor, for that matter, is Northern Missouri), so Cruz doing well in those regions won’t be too big of a surprise. Chicagoland has a lot of hard-over ex-union voters, and south of Springfield, IL it’s basically Kentucky (ditto Jeff City). Our “status quo” projection, on which our current overall projection (Trump wins on first ballot, but by a nose) is based looks like this:
A more likely outcome.
GOP Rule of Thumb: Measure against Trump. If he gets fewer than 150 delegates (winning only Florida and North Carolina[1]As of this writing, he already won the Northern Mariana Islands’ nine delegates. There’s zero data there, but we wonder how much the Islands’ strange history and current legal framework for immigration affected the thoughts of the (likely) couple of dozen voters.), he had a rough night, and the likelihood of a contested convention grows; between 150 and 300, the status quo is preserved; over 300 he had an outstanding night, and he likely wins outright sometime in May.
On the Democratic side, it’s increasingly likely Bernie Sanders will upset Hillary Clinton in some key states, but due to the proportional manner in which delegates are allocated, her delegate lead will still grow. Below is the math if her poll numbers represent her ceiling:
Close States + Hillary ceiling = tough night for the frontrunner?
It’s much more likely that Illinois and Missouri will look more like Ohio, with the winner taking a smaller delegate lead than the above chart suggests. Still, it shouldn’t be a huge surprise if Bernie takes 3 of 5 states. If the numbers above hold, Sanders is on track to finish just 250 delegates shy of Clinton, but she would still com out on top with superdelegates.
Democrat rule of thumb: Measure against Clinton delegates. States won means very little to the math [2]Though admittedly a lot for narrative, which affects future states.. If Clinton wins fewer than 340 delegates, she’s in real trouble, and Bernie may well overtake her in delegate counts by June; if she gets between 340-365 delegates, the Michigan momentum swing is real; if she nets between 365-385, the status quo is maintained; anything above 385 is a pretty good night for her. If Clinton gets more than 400 delegates, the tightening over the past week is mostly erased and she’s back on track to win without resorting to superdelegates.
As of this writing, he already won the Northern Mariana Islands’ nine delegates. There’s zero data there, but we wonder how much the Islands’ strange history and current legal framework for immigration affected the thoughts of the (likely) couple of dozen voters.
2.
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Though admittedly a lot for narrative, which affects future states.
We’ve already adjusted our model to account for a “Clinton ceiling,” and it’s looking like it may be the right projection. New polls from Quinnipiac and Public Policy Polling show Sanders closing the gap in Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri. Our model baked in a Missouri upset (we have him winning there by nearly 10 points on the assumptions late breakers go for him). The potential softening in Ohio, where PPP has Clinton 46-41 is a significant shift from our model’s 55-45 split (as, under our rule, this would translate to a 9-point Sanders win). PPP’s 48-45 split in Illinois is not too far from the 51.5-48.5 we’re projecting.
The GOP numbers are equally interesting in Ohio, showing a tied race there. If Kasich fails to win there, it’s hard to see a credible pathNew @ppppolls and @QuinnipiacPoll numbers show tight Dem race in OH, MO, IL with potential #Sanders upset. #Kasich #Trump tight. for him and Rubio to stay in (and for the GOP to block Trump).
Donald Trump has a good chance to effectively wrap things up on March 15. Polls show him with a 20-point lead in Florida (where early voting opened as Marco Rubio was tanking), putting him on track to take all of its 99 delegates in the winner-take-all primary. If Rubio fails to win Florida, it’s difficult to see him staying in the race. Here’s how our model sees that race playing out:
Trump sweeps Super Tuesday part 2, Rubio drops out, Trump wraps it up in May.
Change four variables, though, and the race takes on a different flavor:
Rubio drops out after Florida. His supporters go 75% to Kasich, 20% to Cruz, and 5% to Trump (yes, that’s a total guess).
Kasich wins Ohio. This isn’t a huge stretch; he leads Trump in current polling averages, and the 6-7% Rubio numbers may heed his strategic-voting advice.
Trump’s poll numbers are his ceiling. Until our last update, our model split the “undecided” votes (i.e. the difference between 100 and the sum of the candidates’ support) proportionally. We’ve added a number of different scenarios. The one that tracks most closely to reality is that Trump’s polls are his ceiling; the biggest difference in his favor, according to the excellent fivethirtyeight.com poll average, was the 3.3% miss in Massachusetts. On average, he comes in below his polls 1-2%.
Cruz wins Illinois. He trails Trump by 6 points in the late fivethirtyeight.com average, but when we apply the “Trump ceiling” rule, he comes within a single point.
Assume four things, Trump needs a second ballot.
Based on that, Trump misses. the target by about 20 votes. Still not an ideal outcome for the #NeverTrump camp, but it doesn’t require too many logical leaps.
Stretching a bit further into supposition, Rubio’s dropout could broaden the gap:
Kasich or Cruz win Pennsylvania. Rubio dropping out would put the three remaining candidates within a point or two of each other (possibly favoring Kasich, as Rubio still polls strongly here). Kasich may end up off the ballot, though.
Kasich or Cruz win Maryland. There, they really would all get a third under our polling split.
Trump falls over 100 short if he loses OH, PA, IL, MD, and CA.
This setup would already have Cruz winning Wisconsin and Kasich winning California, based on Rubio’s support pushing them over the edge. That’s about as close to a NeverTrump dream scenario that the numbers currently bear out. It would have the weird effect of an all-out fight in California (!), but perhaps March 15 will shed a bit more light on Rubio’s future, and on Trump’s ceiling.
The story of the week on the Democratic side this week was Bernie Sanders’ impressive win in Michigan, where polls had him trailing 20%. It’s probably right to question the demographic models pollsters are using for the upper-Midwest states (including Ohio and Illinois that vote March 15 – and where Clinton holds 20-point leads).
This blog isn’t going to do that. Our model is set up to assume that the candidates’ polling averages are their “floor”. In Michigan, for example, polls showed Clinton at around 58% support and Sanders at 38%. Our model split the remaining votes proportionally (i.e. Clinton got 58% of undecideds).
In the event, Clinton’s strength was oversold by around 10%, and Sanders, in effect, won all of those plus all of the undecideds. Since polls are the only data that show likely support, changing that as a baseline for the model would put us too far into guess territory. Instead, we’ve built into the model a couple of variables to re-align how undecided votes are split.
National polls have Clinton leading Sanders 51.8% to 37.6%. So what happens if all of the undecideds vote for Sanders (i.e. if he is polling 48.2%)?
If Sanders wins all of the undecideds, Clinton would need super delegates to clinch the nomination.
Well, the race closer, and ends with a different result from our baseline projection. Clinton would end up 150 delegates short of the 2,382 delegates the Democrats need to win on the first ballot without superdelegates. Most outlets show her with around 460 superdelegates pledged, so she would likely still win the nomination, but with Sanders saying he’s in until the convention, the backroom politicking would continue until the actual nomination.
Clinton’s lead grows (slightly) through April even if Sanders gets all the undecideds.
How likely is this outcome? The polls suggest Clinton is holding/gaining nationally and in most states where there is polling. Obviously, that’s not how things played out in Michigan. The key states to watch for assessing both whether the polls are overplaying Clinton’s strength and whether late deciders are breaking to Sanders are Florida, Illinois, and North Carolina, and Ohio (there just isn’t good polling in Missouri). Until then, the current polls are the best information we have.
Clinton has trended slightly up in national polls over the past four weeks.
Big nights for both Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. The former grew his delegate lead (though not by quite as much as our model projected, mostly because there wasn’t any polling in Idaho somewhat because Cruz/Kasich had a stronger-than-expected night). Sanders, though, still lost ground overall to Hillary Clinton.
Clinton still leads by over 200 pledged delegates, and our model still shows her getting a majority of delegates without dipping into her (substantial) super delegate reserve – but only just. The big caveat here is that Sanders will almost certainly get a national bounce from Michigan, and the result there may suggest that polls in other states are under representing his strength:
Sanders had a big night, but Clinton (possibly) still on track for win without superdelegates.
On the GOP side, the thing to watch is if Rubio drops out. He’s widely thought of as the “establishment” candidate, but, as we’ve reported before, he’s not necessarily loved by GOP insiders. We’re speculating here, but Rubio’s best hope may be to do what he can to help Kasich survive in the hopes he could win points with insiders for a potential Kasich ticket emerging from a brokered convention. It’s a risky strategy: for Kasich to win at the convention, he would need to wheel and deal considerably, possibly abrogating whatever primary deal he strikes with Rubio. Oh, and Trump is still on target to win:
If Rubio dropped out today, Trump would likely win Florida, and Kasich would pick up Pennsylvania and Ohio – but Trump would still win on the first ballot.
There are 234 winner-take-all delegates on March 15 in Florida, Ohio, and Illinois. Polls show Trump winning all of them. If he does, we project him winning in early May. Kasich appears to have a better shot at winning his home state than Rubio does in his. If Kasich pulls it off, the #NeverTrump movement’s only hope – and slim one at that – is to get Rubio to drop out and full-throatedly endorse Kasich.
There’s a lot of talk from Bernie Sanders supporters about the super delegate race, and it’s pretty clear that Clinton currently holds a commanding lead with 460 of the 712 on the board. They argue, though, that those delegates will start flipping to Sanders when he builds a pledged delegate lead. Based on our projections, however, Clinton is likely to earn the 2,382 delegates she needs to win without using any of her pledged delegates.
Based on our count, Clinton holds a 699 to 458 lead in pledged delegates. Based on current polling, that lead should expand considerably on March 15:
Upcoming states highly favorable for Clinton.
Of the above, only Missouri lacks state-specific data and is therefore based on Clinton’s nationwide 51%-37.6% lead. If those numbers hold, Clinton will hold a 1244-776 lead following those votes.
Is that impossible to make up? Well, mathematically, no. But the path to get there is highly improbable. To make up a 480-delegate deficit, Sanders would have to win every single delegate in Pennsylvania AND New York, for example.
Does that mean Hillary has it locked up? Well, no. After March 15, we see Sanders basically keeping pace with her. Our projection sees her building her lead a bit on April 22, but mostly that’s just big-delegate states that are relying on the national poll. Unless things change, she won’t actually wrap it up until the last day of voting on June 7:
Clinton’s lead is set to grow March 15 and never substantially narrow.
Sanders is now on record saying he won’t drop out before the convention. That probably makes sense. There’s not much that Clinton can offer him now that will make him back down, and it probably helps her general-election campaign to have the come-together moment happen at the convention. That will probably happen: it’s hard to see Sanders losing the political revolution fight and then letting Trump take the White House.
The press narrative is basically right: Ted Cruz had a great night Saturday, somewhat at Donald Trump’s expense but much more at Marco Rubio’s. However, neither Maine nor Kentucky had good polling there, so all you can say is that they didn’t reflect the national polling average – which isn’t saying much at this point. Here’s how they did:
Trump
Cruz
Rubio
Kasich
Projected
Result
Projected
Result
Projected
Result
Projected
Result
Kansas
19
9
8
24
7
6
5
1
Kentucky
22
17
10
15
9
7
4
7
Louisiana*
22
18
12
17
0
0
0
0
Maine
12
9
5
12
5
0
0
2
Note that Louisiana didn’t post its rounding rules for congressional districts, so you have to wait on the state GOP to assign the remaining 11 delegates. The same rounding problems are why our projection doesn’t add up to the actual.
All in all, though, Trump comes out about 15 delegates below projection, Rubio 8 below, and Cruz 33 above. That’s a pretty big deal for Cruz, if for no other reason than it gives him some momentum ahead of March 15 and now makes him look like the main anti-Trump.
Delegate projections March 6
It’s still a long road, and there’s probably no way that Rubio drops out before Florida (though there, remarkably, hasn’t been a poll there since February 24), but his strong second to Trump in delegate count (coupled with Rubio’s bad press night) could change the narrative. If Rubio wins Florida and Kasich wins Ohio, it’s hard to see either dropping out to clear the path for Cruz, but if they did, here’s what the math might look like:
Admittedly, this is an anti-Trump fantasy and not really based on current polls.
Prior to Super Tuesday, we thought there were no scenarios in which Donald Trump didn’t go on to get the 1,237 delegates needed to win on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention. Trump had a slightly weaker than expected delegate haul than we expected, and there are a few glimmers of hope for the #NeverTrump crowd.
It turns out that Mitt Romney is probably right: the most likely way for Trump to not win is for Marco Rubio and John Kasich voters to vote strategically. Our latest projections, which include Trump taking the big winner-take-all states of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Illinois shows Trump taking the majority in after April 26. This is mostly on the strength of a huge March 15 haul for the candidate, where we see him picking up over 500 delegates to reach 881 of the 1,237 needed.
If Trump wins the big winner-take-all states, he should wrap it up before May 1.
There is no world in which the non-Trumps get block his first-ballot nomination without a Rubio victory to claim Florida’s 99 delegates. Trump leads leads Kasich in Ohio 30.2% to 26.6%. There’s no polling for Puerto Rico’s 23 winner-take-all delegates, but we’ll assume for the sake of argument that Trump doesn’t win that one. Move those to the other side, and Trump’s victory moves all the way to the final day, but he still wins.
So what’s the most-likely non-Trump path? Polling beyond March is spotty, but if Trump loses Florida, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Ohio, Puerto Rico, and California, you’ve got a contested convention. He currently holds double-digit leads in PA (April 26) and NJ (June 7), and Cruz may be within a few points in California, but there haven’t been any good polls there forever (probably because most normal nomination contests would be wrapped up by the final day.
Trump just misses assuming he loses Florida, Ohio, California, Puerto Rico, and New Jersey…all winner-take-all contests.
A simpler take is this: If Trump wins Florida and Ohio, there is virtually no option to stop him. If he loses those, there’s a possibility to block him. If he also loses Illinois on March 15, that would suggest the numbers we’re using to project are too high, and Trump may fall several hundred delegates short.
Of course, all of this assumes that Trump loses a contested convention; it’s hard to imagine what policy concessions the other candidates can offer true Trump delegates. Trump has between 250 million and 10 billion (depending on your source) convincing reasons to persuade other delegates to break camp if he needs to.
At a dinner following the South Carolina primaries, a GOP insider close to Jeb Bush said party leaders were looking for ways to get Cruz and Rubio to better cooperate in order to stall Trump’s march to the nomination. The insider rolled off a number of options, including possibly stacking up a POTUS-VPOTUS ticket in exchange for a drop out. A plan B, they said, was to get sufficient cooperation to force a brokered convention, at which point they could move the delegates in the right direction.
With Bush and Graham saying the party is “batshit crazy,” you’d think the establishment would be looking to save the party. You’d be wrong. While Jeb will eventually endorse Rubio, GOP insiders say he still seethes at both Rubio’s decision to run and his personal attacks against Bush; Bush won’t offer that endorsement until the last minute.
The situation invites the question as to whether they consider Rubio a true “establishment” candidate. They shouldn’t, and it appears they don’t. Insiders are not actively pushing Kasich to drop out, reportedly in hopes that he can become the nominee in a brokered convention.
These insiders have better data than we do, but unless their data is wildly different than ours, they’re suffering from a bout of wishful thinking. No one will drop out before Super Tuesday, and Rubio and Kasich will probably stay in through March 15, when Florida and Ohio vote in winner-take-all primaries. The problem is, Trump is leading polls in those states, and will have a yuuuge delegate lead before March 15.
GOP delegate projection thru March 10 as of Feb 28
The chart above is based on state-level polls with state-level delegate allocation rules. After Super Tuesday, Trump should have around 440 delegates, Cruz 192, and Rubio 112. Those projections would have Trump on pace to wrap up the nomination before May 1, with Cruz and Rubio getting just over 300 delegates a piece.
538 delegate projections run February 28
We’ve run dozens of projections based on current polling data[1]Of course, none of them involve Cruz or Rubio dropping out. We’ll need to check the 2nd preference votes for both of those candidates. We haven’t seen good data since before Iowa. At that time, nearly 30% of Rubio’s supporters went to Cruz and 10% to Trump. Cruz dropping out meant 30% went to Trump and around 20% each to Rubio and Carson.. The only scenario that produces a brokered convention involves Kasich dropping out before Super Tuesday and 85% of his supporters breaking for Rubio. Even then, Trump falls only 21 delegates short.
Run February 28 based on fivethirtyeight polls, assuming 85/10/5 Rubio/Cruz/Trump reallocation
So let’s assume no one drops out until after Ohio and Florida vote. What happens then? No surprise, Trump wins, needing only around 300 delegates more after March 15:
Kasich drops out after (losing) Ohio (to Trump). Trump wins the nomination.
So where does this put us? Barring massive shifts in polling numbers[2]Or, Ohio and Florida’s winner-take-alls bouncing to another candidate, GOP insiders will be out of time to affect the outcome if they wait until after Florida to shape the race. They’re probably too late already; their unwillingness (or inability) to do so before Super Tuesday probably cemented the deal.
Of course, none of them involve Cruz or Rubio dropping out. We’ll need to check the 2nd preference votes for both of those candidates. We haven’t seen good data since before Iowa. At that time, nearly 30% of Rubio’s supporters went to Cruz and 10% to Trump. Cruz dropping out meant 30% went to Trump and around 20% each to Rubio and Carson.
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Or, Ohio and Florida’s winner-take-alls bouncing to another candidate
