We made an error in our model. Because of the early assumption we made that congressional districts would break, on average, as the statewide total did, we may miss (and miss big) on Illinois delegate counts. As a shortcut, our model made it a GOP winner-take-all contest. In fact, it’s winner-take-all for the 12 statewide delegates, and winner-take-all in each Congressional district. We still think Trump will get the majority there, but Cruz and Kasich may chip into his count.
This will be corrected when results come in, and shouldn’t have too big of an impact on the overall projection. Apologies for the error.