We’re updating the underlying model to tune it a bit and allow a little bit greater variable control, but it won’t be ready until after the March 22 primaries. These may end up being relatively straightforward.
Surprisingly, this side works out pretty easily. Arizona is winner-take-all. Trump is leading Cruz by over 10 points, and should all 58 delegates. Utah offers a bit of excitement. Cruz is polling just over 50%. Our model has him taking nearly 55%. If he gets above 50, he gets all 40 delegates. If not, he has to split them proportionally with Kasich (who would get 10-12) and Trump (who’d get 5).
The next week should be good for Bernie Sanders.
That’s a bunch of caucuses in states that should favor him. The one where he might come out behind is Arizona. There’s simply no state-level data in most of the states though. One big pickup for him could be Washington, where a 10- or 20-point gap could help him chip into Clinton’s delegate lead. In the best-case scenario, though, it’s hard to see him making up more than 30 delegates all in, which is less than 10% of what he needs to get even. April may help, but new polls in New York show Clinton building a big lead there.